, which argues that you must consistently ship innovations to the market (and frequently fail), and The Dip
[both by Mr. Godin], which argues that... the real success comes after the quitters have left the building".
The Apollo program, in fact the whole space race, poked the box in unique way. What they did back then is the biggest example of pushing pass the fear of shipping Seth Godin mentions.What's impressive about this is the cultural changes that took place to allow the space race. People, at one time, thought even short range rockets where impossible. Whole administrations on both sides of the race were against space programs at first.
We are now is the middle of the dip, the part where people quit because this is the most tiresome part of any endeavor. The excitement of the firsts has worn off. But quitting the multi-generational project that is space exploration "in the middle is dumb". We are on the verge of something epic. Every step through the brick wall that is holding humanity back from being space-faring will be awful, absolutely awful, but it will so be worth decades of effort on our part. Efforts that we might not see the fruits of, but efforts humanity will enjoy. No one said this would be easy.
Now is the hardest time in our progress towards space settlement, not our first baby steps, but our first steps as adults. We are allowed to fail over and over in the start, to keep poking at it until a species reaches its firsts in space. But once the project is committed to by showing the public successful baby steps, successful pokes, then, then we must not quit. Even as this struggle tempts us too.
Agreed
ReplyDeleteHey, how have things been? Sorry I've been away from blogging so long.
ReplyDeleteSpaceX and COTS largely shape my view on this question.
ReplyDeleteI think that we have passed the bottom of the dip with the failings of several NewSpace companies back about 5-10 years back. But SpaceX has an impressive launch manifest which seems to guarantee it's survival.
I think that SoaceX is showing and proving that it does not require billions to develop new space hardware. One of the SLS's greatest threats is when a Falcon Heavy launches (say only 2 years from now). Most of the cost of the FH will already have been spent in the development of the F9 and so the US will have a heavy rocket 70% of the size of the SLS for pennies on the dollar. Dock two FH payloads in LEO and you have nearly what a scaled-up SLS would have been able to deliver again for pennies on the dollar. I don't see how the SLS could survive politically in the face of such a damning reality. And, once the SLS is killed and that money is freed up and with a COTS approach having proven so effective then a "Lunar COTS" will permanently blow open the door to space.