"Prediction professor" Allan Lichtman has correctly named the winner of every presidential election since 1984, and now he's willing to hazard a guess about how a presidency will end. "There's a very good chance that Donald Trump could face impeachment," Lichtman told CNN's Erin Burnett on Erin Burnett OutFront on Wednesday.
Lichtman, a political historian who teaches at the American University in Washington, says he uses his own system of 13 true or false statements to judge whether the incumbent party will retain the White House. However, when it came to his bold prediction of a Trump impeachment, he told Burnett it's based on his instinct.
As for Trump's impeachment, there is no data other than Lichtman's own hunch. "First of all, throughout his life [Trump] has played fast and loose with the law," Lichtman explained. "He has run an illegal charity in New York state. He has made an illegal campaign contribution through that charity. He has used the charity to settle personal business debts. He faces a [Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act] lawsuit."
"The Republicans are nervous about Donald Trump," Lichtman said. "He is a loose cannon. Nobody knows what he really believes or really where he stands. He can't be controlled. The Republicans would vastly prefer to have Mike Pence, an absolutely predictable down-the-pipe conservative Republican."
Burnett pushed back at Lichtman's claim, noting his allegations have not been proven in a court of law and went on to ask why he thought Trump could be impeached when Republicans hold both the House and Senate.
Burnett points out that Republicans hold both the Senate and the House, making the process of an impeachment seem a whole lot trickier to pull off. Lichtman, though, isn't convinced that will be a hindrance, as he explains below. Jeva Lange